The current good times will be followed by more turbulence and economic pain for the developing world.
![Cars rush through the business district along the Sudirman avenue in Jakarta, Indonesia [Getty]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/25064123b92f428394aa5f8c519a6237_18.jpeg?resize=770%2C513&quality=80)
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The biggest threat from an escalation of conflict with the West would be a blow to Turkey’s fragile balance of payments.
The fragmentation of the EU carries huge costs for Turkey, which can only be ameliorated by closer integration.
![The Turkish delegation led by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu arrives at EU / Turkey accession intergovernmental conference in Brussels, Belgium [EPA]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/6b12ca11eed44d80a139ac9d5041e79d_18.jpeg?resize=770%2C513&quality=80)